High Commodity Prices to Support Foreign Exchange (FX) Inflows, says Top Banker
“Firmer commodity prices have offset lost foreign exchange market inflows from the closure of the Porgera Gold Mine after Barrick inflow decreased by 75%,” According to the BSP Quarter 3 Economic Insight report.
BSP’s Group General Manager for Treasury, Mr. Rohan George said “FX market turnover in the September Quarter fell 6.4% from the June Quarter 2022” said Mr. George, “however, year-to-date increased by 15% compared to the prior year, supported by strong commodity prices, in particular Oil, Copper, Palm Oil, and Coffee.”
“The Kina mid-rate was stable against the U.S. dollar at 0.2840.” notes Mr. George, “Recessionary fears amid a tightening of monetary policy in Australia and widening unfavorable interest rate differentials weakened the Australian dollar and saw Kina rise 10.4% against the Australia dollar, cushioning imported inflation on Australian goods,” he said.
“Outstanding FX orders with BSP have doubled in the past three months,” Mr. George adds, noting that this is a result of light August and September FX inflows, large crude oil imports and pre-Christmas stocking.”
Mr. George also confirmed that the BPNG FX intervention in the September Quarter fell by 25%.
“After light FX inflows in the September quarter, we expect pre-Christmas import orders to increase in early in October and November, before end of year FX inflows satisfy the market’s foreign currency appetite.”
He added that, “BPNG has also issued enhanced exchange control compliance measures in the June quarter.”
To manage volatility in foreign currency flows, businesses should place FX orders (with correct documentation), as soon as possible, ensure orders are cash backed whilst awaiting execution, tax clearance certificates are current and reflect the expected FX order execution time.